“Tobikan Judan” Shinya Aoki (15-2), clad in spandex armor, is expected to surf atop the DREAM Lightweight Grand Prix, and, when his last opponent taps, take home the big prize.
That’s what most believe, but, not so long ago, most believed the world was flat, or, at best, the rounded shell of a very large turtle. Since “time and chance happeneth to all”, let’s take a quick peek at what could happen.
On 11 May, we’ll see if one the following warriors has the equipment to give Aoki his first loss since 2005. Since several of these fighters (complete with difficult-to-pronounce names) aren’t quickly recognized among the North American MMA mainstream, where Affliction brands and “GSP” references are as common as stop signs, all the more reason to break’em down.
Which lightweight might stop the flexible “Tobikan Judan”?
From least likely to most:
Katsuhiko Nagata (4-2)
Aoki, after suffering injuries in his decision win over “JZ” Gesias Calvancante (14-2) at DREAM.2, will face Nagata at DREAM.5.
Nagata is one busy fighter as long as he’s on top. A silver-medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling at the 2000 Olympics, Nagata can clinch well and might toss Aoki to the mat. But, what happens when Aoki’s on his back? Brer Rabbit and the brier patch come to mind.
Aoki should hand Nagata his first submission loss.
Eddie Alvarez (13-1) v “Hellboy” Joachim Hansen (17-6)
Alvarez is fireworks, blood, and guts. He’s always been dangerous, but after losing to Fighters.com’s ninth-ranked welterweight “The Goat” Nick Thompson (35-9) in Bodog and his subsequent weight drop, he’s unpredictable as well.
Before Thompson pounded him out, Alvarez had one gear and one direction: forward with fists flying. He’s a smarter fighter now with improved takedowns, though his lust for hitting hard is still on board.
Hansen had the skills to give third-ranked lightweight “The Fireball Kid” Takanori Gomi (28-3) his first-ever lost. Those skills have only gotten better.
“Hellboy” has brutal leg kicks, which is what toppled Alvarez in Bodog. But, Hansen isn’t nearly as lanky as Thompson; and, Alvarez will get the better of the Norwegian if Hansen employs his kicks. If Alvarez manages a single-leg, don’t expect him to play in Hansen’s ever-dangerous guard.
Alvarez should likely pound this one out, but, if he ends up with Aoki under him, his ground game won’t be enough to keep himself clean of armlocks and triangles galore.
“Endless Fighter” Mitsuhiro Ishida (16-3-1) v “Uno Shoten” Caol Uno (24-10-4)
There’s not much Uno can’t do well. He is exciting and capable of showing up on someone’s back when neither the opponent, nor the crowd expects it. He’s slick and fun and will keep this fight interesting with bursts of opposition.
Fifth-ranked lightweight Ishida is a great wrestler and doesn’t get punched much while waiting for a shot. He moves very well. His footwork will keep him out of trouble when the fight is standing; and, he’ll power through the submission attempts. And, although he’s not super exciting (or, maybe because he’s not), Ishida will likely stay on top, throwing just enough leather to keep the ref from forcing the duo to their feet.
Should Ishida wrestle out a ‘W’, he might face off with Aoki; but, it’s not enough to just put Shinya on his back.
“Crusher” Tatsuya Kawajiri (21-4-2) v “Buscape” Luiz Firmino (12-3)
Firmino moves well enough off his back and has good cardio. And, his back is exactly where Kawajiri could put him quickly as Firmino seems to have problem giving up takedowns.
Once down, though, Firmino must work for submissions, and; Kawajiri will make it everything but easy. Firmino will take a lot of damage, with only brief respites thanks to the occasional submission attempt that will never be sunk.
Kawajiri is a thick beast of a wrestler and tough to submit. Gomi got him with a rear naked choke, but only after he was hurt with body shots, left hands to the face, and knees that drove him down and ripened him for a tap-out.
Kawajiri still punches like a wrestler when standing, but is a dangerous contender for this Grand Prix.
If Kawajiri takes Firmino by TKO or late decision, he could prove more than a handful on the ground for Aoki…should they meet.
“Crusher” postures well and hits hard, but with control. If he doesn’t expose his legs when he’s on top, Kawajiri will be the fighter to push Aoki the hardest.
Unlike the myth of a flat Earth, Kawajiri is one fighter who’s for real and his name, tricky as it seems now, could become a household moniker if he’s the one to topple “Tobikan Judan”.
Photo by Josh Hedges. Copyright Zuffa, LLC
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