TUF 10 Finale Prediction: Jon Jones Will TKO Matt Hamill

After having to pull out of UFC 102 in Portland August 29 to have knee surgery to correct a nagging injury, The Ultimate Fighter 3′s “Hammer” Matt Hamill (6-2) is set to face off against the young rising star “Bones” Jon Jones (9-0) at SpikeTV’s The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale in Las Vegas December 5.

Hamill, a 32-year old New York resident, gives up over ten years in age, but is a seasoned veteran who is tough as nails. Following a very controversial split decision loss to The Ultimate Fighter 3 champion “Count” Michael Bisping (18-2) at UFC 75 in London in 2007, Hamill went on to find victory in the Octagon at UFC Fight Night 13 against “Barbarian” Tim Boetsch (9-3) via a second round TKO.  During that fight Hamill caught a nastily well placed knee that split his bottom lip. Despite the split lip, Hamill remained composed and carried on to defeat his opponent, proving his toughness and ability to keep cool.

Hamill has tremendous wrestling, but relies on his heavy handed striking to finish his fights, only winning by decision once with no submission victories under his belt. Hamill only has one other loss, to “Ace” Rich Franklin (26-5), that came by way of a liver kick in the final round at UFC 88 in Atlanta in September 2008. Time and time again, Hamill surprises me with his ability to pull out victories and do so in powerful fashion. Hamill won “Knockout of the Night” for his head kick KO of “Filipino Wrecking Machine” Mark Munoz (3-1) at UFC 96 in Columbus March 7.

Jones is ten years younger than Hamill, but boasts the same number of professional fights. Jones, the youngest signed UFC fighter at the time of his contract signing, began his career as a mixed martial artist much like others in the business, fighting smaller shows and working his way into the UFC. Jones is a JUCO wrestling champ and, like Hamill, has heavy hands, with five of his nine victories coming by way of KO or TKO due to strikes. Jones also has two submission victories under his belt, both via guillotine choke and one of which put “Irish” Jake O’Brien (11-3). to sleep even after O’Brien had tapped. Jones, also from NY, is a fast, aggressive youngster who looks to continue his quick-rising fame by finishing Hamill, perhaps with one of his trademark spinning back elbows.

I have seen both of these men fight live, and although I am a huge Hamill fan, he doesn’t have the tools to stop what Jones brings to the table. Jones is fast and powerful and the wrestling backgrounds will cancel each other out, leaving a stand up war. Hamill is tough, and has a proven chin, but Jones is as fast as any opponent Hamill has ever seen and will land more strikes than Hamill is used to taking. Jones touts submission victories, and has a better ground game, so look for Jones to immediately move to dominate if the fight goes to the ground. You better believe Hamill has done his homework on Jones’s submission game, so there is a possibility that we won’t see a single shot throughout the duration of the fight. Don’t forget that this is the first fight for Hamill after the knee surgery, so expect there to not only be rust in the pipes, but also a Jones attack on said Knee via leg kicks.

Jones has too many tools for Hamill to handle and will TKO him in round two.

Listen for more TUF 10 Finale predictions on MMA Gospel Radio this Saturday before the fights at www.blogtalkradio.com/mmagospel.