Strikeforce Prediction: Fedor Emelianenko Will Tap Brett Rogers in an Armbar
By: Chad Edward Posted On: November 4, 2009 at 1:30pm
I’ve looked! Readers, I’ve delved into every possibility that Fighters.com’s fifth-ranked heavyweight “Grim” Brett Rogers (10-0) will beat Fighters.com Heavyweight Champion “Last Emperor” Fedor Emelianenko (30-1) at Strikeforce at the Sears Centre Arena in Hoffman Estates northwest of Chicago November 7.
Rogers is a big, strong cat with no fear of Emelianenko. Be sure of that! He’s got good boxing and power in both hands. And, what a great storyline if a former Sam’s Club tire-changer from the heart of Midwest America could rise up through the ranks of the world’s noblest, most grueling athletic endeavor and vanquish the seemingly invincible Russian engima.
Don’t bet on it…
I likes Brett Rogers. Fighters.com was an early cheering section last year for Rogers to either get the big money fight in EliteXC versus “Kimbo Slice” Kevin Ferguson (3-1) or fight for the EliteXC title versus “Junior” Antonio Silva (13-1), either of which I would’ve predicted Rogers to win. Rogers was unfairly passed over for both fights before EliteXC self-destructed.
But, let’s analyze the possibilities versus Emelianenko.
Perhaps a common assumption is that if Rogers has an advantage over Emelianenko it’ll be in striking. But, Emelianenko has already done that. Emelianenko’s last two victories are over tenth-ranked “Pitbull” Andrei Arlovski (14-7) and former UFC champion “Maine-iac” Tim Sylvia (24-6), both of whom had an assumed striking advantage over Emelianenko. Emelianenko left them both on the mat in a total 3:50, and he beat them both striking (tapping out Sylvia in a rear naked choke after dropping him with a combination). And, that’s just Emelianenko’s recent wins. He’s also conquered perceived superior strikers Mark Hunt (5-6), “Cro Cop” Mirko Filipovic (25-8-2), and “Hightower” Semmy Schilt (26-15-1). Is Rogers’s striking really that significantly better than the list of strikers Emelianenko has already handled?
Moving on. Rogers has a puncher’s chance. He certainly could “catch” Emelianenko with a power shot, the kind that put Arlovski on his knees at Strikeforce in St. Louis June 6. But, again, Emelianenko has done that. At PRIDE 26 in Yokohama in 2003, Kazuyuki Fujita (13-7) tagged Emelianenko with a right hook that left Emelianenko teetering and grabbing the air. Then, Emelianenko methodically proceeded to submit Fujita in a rear naked choke in the same round.
And, at PRIDE Critical Countdown 2004, former UFC heavyweight champion “Monster” Kevin Randleman (17-13) dropped Emelianenko on top of his head in a suplex. Unphased, Emelianenko proceeded to submit Randleman in a Kimura a few seconds later.
Even if Rogers connects cleanly to Emelianenko with a big right hook, I can’t be sure that’ll take Emelianenko out of the fight because it hasn’t in the past. If anything, temporary advantages for Emelianenko’s opponents have often lead to them letting down their defenses and Emelianenko finishing them in short-order, like versus Arlovski, Fujita, and Randleman.
Rogers has a size advantage over Emelianenko; but, at approximatley 230-pounds, Emelianenko is more often than not the smallest guy in the fight. Here again, Emelianenko has already done that too. In fact, Emelianenko has beaten fighters even larger than Rogers, including 320-pound Techno Goliath” Hong Man Choi (1-1) and 390-pound “Zuluzinho” Wagner da Conceicao Martins (4-3).
A final factor that could give Rogers a slight advantage over Emelianenko is the hype and associated pressure around a fight broadcast on American network television. Rogers kncoked out Jon Murphy (4-3) on CBS in May 2008, MMA’s debut on American primetime network TV. But, Emelianenko has done that too. Emelianenko has fought before Japanese crowds regularly exceeding 40,000 spectators, more than double the expected attendance Saturday outside of Chicago. In Japan and South Korea, Emelianenko is an icon who can’t walk down streets without being recognized and approached. Again, is the hype and pressure leading up to this fight any greater than Emelianenko has dealt with by coming away a winner before?
My conclusion is that while Rogers is making a huge leap up in competition to fight Emelianenko, Emelianenko has faced better fighters than Rogers several times and beat them all. And, Rogers doesn’t present any specific challenge to Emelianenko that Emelianenko hasn’t overcome before. As much as I’d like to controversially predict Rogers will beat Emelianenko, there’s just no evidence that could logically lead to that prediction.
Emelianenko will want to finish Rogers early to avoid having to carry the larger fighter’s weight over three rounds; and, Emelianenko knows Rogers will be most vulnerable early while the butterflies are still fluttering in his stomach and before he’s comfortable being in the cage with perhaps the most legendary fighter MMA has yet produced.
In the first minute, Emelianenko will explode in sudden, violent combinations, then drift off to Rogers’s left, away from Rogers’s power hand. Emelianenko will expect most of Rogers’s aggression to move forward, and therefore avoidable with lateral movement. He’ll be testing Rogers’s chin, hoping to drop him to the mat dazed so Emelianenko can pounce and finish with a submission, like in the Sylvia fight.
But, I don’t think Emelianenko will be able to drop Rogers with a punch. Emelianenko is going to have to do this the hard way.
Once Emelianenko tests Rogers’s chin and finds it solid, Emelianenko will resort to clinching and trying to trip Rogers to his back. But, again, I think Rogers will be prepared to defend Emelianenko’s trips. Emelianenko will be forced to pull guard, pulling Rogers on top of him the way Emelianenko did versus Choi.
That will be the most crucial period of the fight for Rogers, who’ll be in a clearly dominant position and able to ground’n'pound powerful shots on top of Emelianenko. Of course, Emelianenko expects that and intends to catch an over-excited Rogers in an armbar.
Fighters.com has learned from two separate reliable sources that Rogers has been training extensively on the ground with top-level grapplers and wrestlers, and not faired well at all.
That’ll be Rogers’s downfall; and, though Emelianenko will take damage on his back and come away bloodied, he’ll eventually be able to submit Rogers from inside his guard, most likely in an armbar.
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Comments
Brett Rogers is the best fighter Fedor Emelianenko will ever face off with. Sounds a bit overstated, right? Not at all! Fedor is finally stepping into the cage ‘ladies & gentlemen’, and Brett will undoubtedly use that to his advantage with his size, power, quickness, and agility. Stepping into the cage(octagon) has been a problem for many ring(square) fighters; Mirko Cro Cop is a very good example. Against Rogers, it will prove to be Fedor’s undoing as he will undeniably get tagged by either of Brett’s lightning fast hands and not be able to recover, as he has done so often with many other fighters. Fedor better not think that he can eat Brett’s punches because they come fast and strong. Rogers by KO in round 1 or 2!
excellent post. You highlighted logical points for your argument which makes perfect sense.
However, there is always that slight chance that goes against logic and anything can happen in a fight.
Anyways, I agree with you on the final outcome and that Fedor has already overcome what Brett Rogers has to offer in all cases. So nothing new under the sun for Fedor.
People don’t seem to understand that Fedor can certainly take hits from heavy hands and was already tested before that. The question is how Brett’s conditioning and ground skills pair up. He hasn’t really been tested yet beyond round 2 so its really hard to determine anything to this point. Brett is very elusive and has done a descent job managing not to stay on the ground in his last fights however none of them were at the ground level Fedor was in.
My predictionS:
Rogers will daze Fedor out causing everyone to lift off their seats in suspense. There will be many close calls but partially beaten Fedor will keep a tight clinch and eventually submit the tired Rogers later in the rounds.
OR
After the tired Roger’s energy sizzles out and he manages to barely overcome Fedor’s submission, Fedor will win by decision.
One thing I am pretty positive is that Fedor will NOT get knocked out in the first round.
But take that with a grain of salt
I highly doubt rogers poses a threat to Fedor. Look at all of Rogers past fight he fought bums with napping long hair wearing t-shirts with beer stains of them. Than his last fight with Arlovski didn’t mean absolutely anything. Arlovski came into that fight being completely out of it. He wasn’t in his mental state, that devastating lost to Fedor really messed his career up. He even played Russian Resolute after his lose to Fedor, he didn’t care about anything anymore. Like i said Rogers is a newbie and only has a punchers chance like everybody else that faced Fedor.
FEDOR NO TENDRA PROBLEMAS PARA ACABAR CON ROGERS RECORDEMOS QUE A EL LE SIENTAN MUY BIEN LOS LUCHADORES MAS GRANDES Y PESADOS SUMADA SU EXPERIENCIA Y HABILIDAD EN LA LUCHA EN PISO RGERS INTENTARÁ EN LOS PRIMEROS MINUTOS CONECTAR SUS POTENTES PUÑOS FEDOR TENDRA QUE EVITARLOS ACERCANDOSE MUCHO A EL LUEGO ECHARLO AL PISO DESPUES DE CONECTARLO Y HACERLO TAPETEAR CON UNA GUILLOTINA O PALANCA DE BRAZO.
JOHNNY GALVEZ
That’s a lot to assume. I do agree that Fedor wins and an armbar isn’t hard to believe, but who knows how Fedor will approach this fight, he could beat Brett Rogers anyway he wants. Fedor has fought some considerably better fighters than Rogers. No disrespect to Rogers because I like him a lot, but he’s found himself out of his league with Fedor, as would most and probably all HW contenders. They need to remove that loss from his record too, or at least an asterisk.
Foogazee I’m with you. I hope Roger knocks Fedor out cold and sends him back to Russia. I liked Fedor until he signed with Strikeforce and denied the fans fights we really want to see. WE the fans have made MMA what it is and we are what counts not M-1 and there hunger for money. Please knock Fedor out
mmapunk…your name says it all
HAHAHA…I was wrong about my prediction. I knew Fedor would win but not knock the hell out of Rogers..if he could take punches from Rogers like that and knock out that 235 pound beast with a single blow he sure is the best…all this trash talk against Fedor fpr nothing.
My question is: If Fedor wont go to UFC then why don’t Brock Lesnar go to M-1 to fight for just that one fight and prove that he is the best??? He doesn’t need any money or contracts just fight for the glory..I see all this people talking smack and yet no one even pursued Fedor. They hide behind Dana’s nuts. Too funny.
After Fedor’s contract with only 2 fights left..watch out UFC, Fedor is coming for you!!
He is the best period…Dana White said Rogers would knock him out. I’m glad Fedor shut his Dana’s mouth up..
ROFL FOGAZZE and MMAPUNK. I know it’s tough to see past Rogers size advantage, but you guys have to learn, just like numerous other people that Fedor is a professional fighter, this isn’t a bar fight etc. Size is helpful, as it allowed Rogers to survive into the second round, but he got a rude awakening didn’t he? It’s not your fault, NA culture is obsessed with size and strength, worship it even, so most people have a hard time understanding that fighting is just like any other sport in that it takes a life time to master it. (And striking alone will not win most fights without other skills, this isn’t boxing)
Do you think some 7 foot weekend warrior basketball player could run with the pros if he got a shot? No, wouldn’t happen, he might dunk once or twice in a game, but the guy wouldn’t be good enough to stay on any roster. Same goes for inexperienced fighters like Rogers. Rogers might end up a great fighter, but he was way out of his league against Fedor. It was entertaining, but I didn’t see any point in the fight that Rogers was actually in the fight. The punches looked spectacular, but that was superficial really. To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fedor let it go to the second round to increase the excitement. Fedor could of put Rogers in a clinch, or shot in for any number of takedowns. The only takedown attempts I saw were half hearted Judo throws. Don’t kid yourself if you think the cage is going to pose any real difficulties for Fedor. Peace
You make the same mistake twice my friend…
Why you think… bigger better!!!…………
Lesnar is nothing against Fedor or Rogers.
Brett will kill Lesnar in 10 sec…..
Trust me… There is no fihgters in UFC rigth now for Fedor. That’s Why Dana White is so worry.
Please.. do your home work.
Let me say something like you do:
I almost fell to sleep when i hear huge punch around my house in Alaska.
Run to turn my TV on, but fight was over…
I knew it, that was a Fedor.
He is the best in the world and bring allot of respect to people!!!!
Good for him and for everyone.
@Hercules You make the same mistake twice my friend…
Why you think… bigger better!!!…………
Lesnar is nothing against Fedor or Rogers.
Brett will kill Lesnar in 10 sec…..
Trust me… There is no fihgters in UFC rigth now for Fedor. That’s Why Dana White is so worry.
Please.. do your home work.
Let me say something like you do:
I almost fell to sleep when i hear huge punch around my house in Alaska.
Run to turn my TV on, but fight was over…
I knew it, that was a Fedor.
He is the best in the world and bring allot of respect to people!!!!
Good for him and for everyone.
ummm…Vic, was the last comment directed to me??..i hope not because it it was , you really didn’t read my comments correctly. I was rooting for Fedor, not Rogers and I knew he was going to win..