MMA Gospel - If Scored Correctly Lyoto Machida Beat "Shogun" Rua at UFC 104

The fiery debate over MMA judging was doused with gasoline after the recent title fight between Fighters.com and UFC Light Heavyweight Champion “Dragon” Lyoto Machida (16-0) and third-ranked challenger “Shogun” Mauricio Rua (18-4).

Ultimately Machida was awarded the unanimous decision, but by no means was the victory without controversy.  I was at UFC 104 and, prior to the decision being announced, predicted the match going to Machida by the score of 48-47.

That being said, I didn’t think Machida dominated Rua in his typical fashion and watched the UFC’s most elusive fighter take an unexpected beating.

Regardless of my scoring of the fight, a statistically analytical review will shed some light on this highly-debated match up. For statistical data, I referenced Fight Metric’s break down of the fight.

Round One

Machida came out in this round and stuck to his usual game plan, forcing the usually aggressive Rua to chase him.  Rua showed great patience and landed 15 solid leg kicks, something that most of Machida’s past opponents found impossible.  Machida showed his usual elusive patience and landed nine solid body shots and only one leg kick.

It appeared that although Machida was still hard to aggress, Rua’s game plan was to take “The Dragon’s” legs out of the equation.  By sheer numbers alone, Rua appeared to have taken this round by out-striking Machida 19 to 11.

But, what most casual fans don’t realize is that the scoring criteria that the judges use scores higher for “clean” striking than sheer volume.

CSAC judge Cecil People’s was quoted as saying, “Clean strikes are valued more-so than the quantity of strikes landed.  You have to keep in mind we always favor the fighter who is trying to finish the fight, and leg kicks certainly don’t do that.”

Although I disagree Peoples’s “leg kick” comment, Machida won the first round using his criteria.  Rua also had one takedown attempt defended successfully by Machida, therefore scoring grappling points in favor of Machida.

Round Two

The second round featured more of the same game plan for both fighters.  Machida was still making Rua come to him and looking for opportune times to counter. Rua came out and threw another impressive series of 14 leg kicks, effectively containing Machida’s leg attack and minimizing Machida’s kicking game to a mere two kicks landed.

Rua also began to land body shots in round two, out striking Machida by double and landing a total of six solid body shots. Although Machida was landing a few shots, Rua shook them off and stayed focused and patient.  Machida did unleash two solid power shots to Rua’s head in this round and successfully defended another Rua takedown attempt.

By a statistical account, Rua took this round.

One of the factors over which Machida did maintain an advantage was dictating when and where the fight happened. Machida is a master at forcing his opponent to chase him and attempt to push the fight.  And, when his opponents chase, Machida unleashes his lethally accurate counterattack.  Although Machida did stick to that game plan, Rua did a phenomenal job at fending off Machida’s counterattacks and working to land strikes as well.

Based on the “quality-over-quantity” method, I found this round hard to score.  Machida won this round on all judges’ score cards, and next to no one else’s.

Round Three

Machida came out for round three looking winded and noticeably affected by Rua’s onslaught of leg kicks. Rua continued his assault on Machida’s legs, landing another nine leg kicks throughout the round.

However, Machida finally seemed to find the accuracy with his hands, landing 15 total head and body shots. Rua attempted another failed takedown, but still showed a great ability to find his range, landing ten shots to Machida’s head and body. Machida’s usually lightning fast defense was too slow and Rua began chipping away at the holes.

This was arguably the closest statistical round, Rua landing 19 shots to Machida’s 15. Machida also shook off another Rua takedown attempt. Machida won the hearts of all three judges this round, but few fans were swayed.

Round Four

Round four was where Machida began to show fatigue and Rua’s damaging leg attack paid off.  Machida threw a measly three strikes all round while defendind a takedown attempt.

On the other hand, Rua seemed to gain steam as the crowd cheered his name. Rua landed another five solid leg kicks and lit Machida up with a total of five power strikes to the body and head of the champ.

It looked like Machida was finished and just dodging Rua’s hungry attack. But, on California State Athletic Commission’s Nelson Hamilton’s card, Machida won the round. 
Machida looked battered, moved slowly, and landed next to nothing. Machida obviously lost round five.

Round Five

Machida, although bruised, battered, and tired, seemed to know that he lost the previous round and came out for the final round trying to push the pace. Unfortunately for Machida, Rua came out with the same mind set and looked crisp.

Rua was fighting with patient aggression, nearly doubling Machida’s strikes, and continued to land leg kicks at will.  Rua attempted no takedowns, thus no grappling points could be awarded to Machida.  Machida was exhausted and beat up.  Rua won this round.

At the end of the fight, the jury was out.

Rua did the best job yet at neutralizing Machida’s puzzling style.  Machida appeared mortal. Both fighters left it all in the cage.  But, based on the criteria professional judges use to score fights, Machida won by the score 48-47.

Round One: 10-9
Round Two: 10-9
Round Three: 10-9
Round Four: 9-10
Round Five: 9-10

When watching a fight live, UFC broadcaster Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg aren’t whispering their own biases in my ear. Also, live UFC events last about six hours and, by the time the main card hits, the live audience is full of beer and ready to cheer and jeer anything. Don’t always interpret the crowd’s reaction as reflective of what’s happening in a fight.

Finally, as everyone knows, never let the judges decide. They are human and have their own views and opinions. If you want the win, finish the fight.

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