I’m expecting a fun card tonight at the Toyota center for UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos III. Below is my breakdown of the main card and my quick picks for the prelims. As always you can keep it locked tight here for full coverage of the event on Fighters.com.
UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos III
Date: October 19, 2013
Location: Houston, Texas / Venue: Toyota Center
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos*
Whenever I breakdown trilogies I ask myself which fight will the third one look like more. I don’t use the word lucky punch. I have a hard time saying the punch he landed on Velasquez in their first fight was lucky when Dos Santos has throwing that same hook about 3 million times in his life at the point. The main event in Houston will look more like their second fight, and thats bad news for Dos Santos. Dos Santos is a dangerous guy, but the longer this fight goes the better the chances that Cain will defend his title. Velasquez has been one of those fighters that has been on pundits radars for a long time, and when we heard insiders talk about him, they all predicted what is happening right now. Velasquez will be one of the best heavyweights in history.
Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson
After seeing the way Cormier handled Josh Barnett, I have a hard time seeing how Roy Nelson wins this fight. While Nelson is a solid BJJ fighter, he isn’t going to be able to mount an attack from his back against Cormier, and that will lead to an easy decision win for Cormier. Nelson will only have a few moments to land something big in this fight, and those are horrible odds against someone like Cormier. Cormier by decision.
Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez
This is going to be an ugly fight for Sanchez. While he is still trying to figure out what weight class he should fight in, he is stepping in against one of the best lightweights in the world. Sanchez will no doubt come forward and throw punches, and if he gets tagged with him something he will shoot. Melendez has great footwork, he has a jab that will keep Sanchez on his heels, and has some really solid wrestling chops of his own. I expect Melendez to be better where this fight goes, and as long as Melendez doesn’t just decide to stop and throw punches with Sanchez, he should win this fight. Melendez via decision.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan
Jordan has a lot of momentum leading in the fight as he has gone undefeated in 2013 and has finished both Pat Barry and Mike Russow. Gonzaga stumbled in his bout with Travis Browne, but rebounded with a 17 second KO of Dave Herman at UFC 162. Its hard to run down all the ways this fight could play out, but I think Jordan is going to do enough to muscle Gonzaga around enough and land something big. I see that happening in the second round.
John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague
I think experience wins Dodson this fight. We know Montague is a capable fighter, but we don’t know exactly how capable he is as we have never seen him tested as far as Dodson is going to do. Montague could easily shock us all, as the lower tier fighters he has faced he has historically handled them well. The way a good fighter does. However, we’re going to find out exactly where he is at UFC 166. Dodson is going to put him through the ringer, as I believe Dodson can be a handful for any 125’er on the planet. Dodson has already been tested, and thats going to go a long way in this fight. Dodson takes the decision in this one.
Tim Boetsch vs. CB Dollaway
-Boetsch, Technical Knockout
Hector Lombard vs. Nate Marquardt
Jessica Eye vs. Sarah Kaufman
-Kaufman, Technical Knockout, Round 3
K.J. Noons vs. George Sotiropoulos
-Noons, Technical Knockout, Round 3
Adlan Amagov vs. T.J. Waldburger
Tony Ferguson vs. Mike Rio
-Ferguson, Technical Knockout, Round 1
Andre Fili vs. Jeremy Larsen
-Fili, Unanimous Decision
Kyogi Horiguchi vs. Dustin Pague
-Horiguchi, Technical Knockout, Round 2
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