If DREAM Falls, is Japanese MMA Doomed?

Very similar in its nature to the much-maligned Shine Fights Lightweight Grand Prix, the upcoming “DREAM.16” card from the Japanese-based DREAM promotion seems to be dead or near death before it even gets a chance to air. It’s highly rumored that DREAM’s parent company, Fighting and Entertainment Group, is in a state of financial distress. If DREAM does fall, where will this leave Japanese MMA? The future doesn’t seem terribly optimistic. Here are my thoughts.

I’ll say this right from the start: I applaud DREAM for what they’ve tried to do in the past and what they’re trying to do moving forward. I wouldn’t say I’m a huge fan, but I’ve caught and watched several shows all the way through and I’ve liked what I’ve seen far more often than not. I wouldn’t even have known about one of my current “dark horse” favorites, Marius Zaromskis, had it not been for DREAM. Do I want DREAM to succeed? Of course I do. But still, here’s what I think will happen if they don’t.

The prognosis is pretty grim. If DREAM falls, I don’t see any promotion immediately taking its place, not for several years at the very least. The Japanese MMA scene is far from dead, and will continue to be far from dead even if DREAM ceases to exist, but DREAM is undoubtedly the biggest MMA promotion right now. They have the best production values, they have the best contracted talent, and they’re able to bring in some of the best foreign and non-contracted talent. They’ve got a working relationship with Strikeforce and several smaller-scale Japanese MMA promotions. When PRIDE fell, it took a lot of effort to pick up the scraps not already acquired by the UFC and make DREAM. If DREAM falls, and no new uniting force emerges that is able to bring together big budgets and smart brains, I think all of the notable DREAM fighters will find their homes in various other promotions around the world, rather than being scooped up under one Japanese-based umbrella.

In an environment that is already talent-drained, the fall of DREAM would only further the decline. Even as a moderate fan, I frankly believe that DREAM’s world-ranked talents are few and far between. They heavily rely on foreign talent, and much (but not all, I’ll give them that) of the home-grown talent that they do have aren’t topping any of the notable ranking lists. And all the best talent will likely be scooped up by the UFC, WEC, or even Strikeforce. All three organizations have the kind of money and brand recognition to attract the big stars that would suddenly find themselves as free agents if DREAM went under, and all three organizations have a history of aggressively going after a defunct promotion’s best fighters when that promotion’s death bell tolls. Only the loyal Japanese Mixed Martial Artists would likely remain in Japan.

Putting it plainly: if DREAM falls, I think Shinya Aoki’s doomsday prophecy will come to pass: Japanese MMA will become a colony to American MMA. It will take years to build the kind of stars in Japan that the United States has if DREAM were to cease operations, and with no major organizations stepping in to take their place, any MMA fighter with a brain that establishes himself/herself in Japan would immediately jump ship without a second thought if the big USA promotions show an interest. This process of breeding good fighters only to have them snatched up by the big boys when they (the talent) begin to hit their stride would likely become the trademark trend of the entire Japanese MMA scene, which would result in the occasional big show featuring good talent, albeit with things quickly returning to normal once the next inevitable talent drain occurred.

If we’re being honest, the future already looks bleak for Japanese MMA, considering that most (if not all) of the best fighters in the world compete in the three big promotions (the UFC, the WEC, and Strikeforce). But as I said before, I don’t think that Japanese MMA is doomed if DREAM goes bankrupt. Yet I do firmly believe that Japanese MMA’s legitimacy as an actual force to be reckoned with in Mixed Martial Arts will cease to exist if DREAM ceases to exist.

And what about you, fans and friends? If DREAM becomes defunct, where would this leave the Japanese MMA scene?