Pick a Card: Strikeforce Grand Prix Semifinals (MAIN CARD)

To-recap on yesterday’s column where I first broke down Saturday night’s Strikeforce preliminary pairings, the tournament seemed so promising on paper:  At its core stood eight of the world’s best heavyweights not under Zuffa contracts ready to prove supreme.  A bit of luck and Fairy Tale magic would see beloved Russian tough guy Fedor Emelianenko face off against the renegade Dutchman (and heavyweight champion) Alistair Overeem in a flashbulb-filled final not seen since the days of PRIDE GP.

Unfortunately, as fate would have it, Fedor lost in the first round (and ultimately lost his job months later after another loss) and Overeem and Strikeforce parted ways after his victory over Fabricio Werdum.)  Now, some 7 months after the idea was idea was born, the landscape of the tournament looks nothing like it could have, there’s no Heavyweight Champion, and Scott Coker is now left to find glimpses of light in a dimming future for his promotion.  Until then, he has another round of his heavyweight tournament to carry on with.

Now let’s take a look at the main card and see how it breaks down with my fight predictions.

Pat Healy vs. Maximo Blanco

There are fewer oddities in MMA than the career fight record of Pat Healy, who I have a bit of a soft spot for.  There is NOBODY, and I repeat, NOBODY in the history of MMA with stoppage victories over Dan Hardy, Carlos Condit, Paul Daley and Canadian blue-chipper Ryan Ford, the latter of whom he has defeated twice.  I understand it may have been a different time He is also the man who ended Lyle Beerbohm‘s meteoric rise up the ranks in Strikeforce.  If you’re looking for a winning streak to be stopped, send Healy in for the kill, and few in MMA will do that job better.

Yet, here he is without a Strikeforce title fight to his name, and without a belt.  Healy begins to climb the mountain, yet something always gets in the way.  His UFC career lasted less than 3 minutes, and whenever he’s been right at the cusp of the next big step, he’s lost the fights.  Though all his Strikeforce victories have gone to decision, Healy performs big time when there’s very little pressure on him, and after canvassing his Twitter network for support to step in for an injured Josh Thomson for this fight, execs listened and here he is.

Blanco is a big game performer overseas, regularly appearing on Sengoku cards.  He comes to North America riding a 6 win fight streak.  Neither fighter can afford to lose here.  Blanco needs a big effort to get in good with Zuffa.  Healy needs to shake off the doubters and begin to put together a run capable of shedding light to his talents.  Healy has a lot going for him coming into this fight, despite taking it on late notice.  With his affinity for being a momentum killer, and the added pressure of needing to look good after asking for the fight till he got it, look for Healy to enter ready, and take a close decision victory.  This win should propel him toward deeper waters and bigger names in the division.

Prediction – Pat Healy via Split Decision.

Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal vs. Roger Gracie

Leg injuries have kept “King Mo” and Gracie out of recent action.  Mo is fighting for the first time in over a year after suffering a knee injury, and Gracie is back in action after suffering a stress fracture in his foot training for this fight which was originally scheduled for July 30th.  After 7 quick wins in 2 years of pro fighting, including a short tenure with the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Championship, Lawal was dethroned by Rafael Cavalcante last August. Gracie has yet to taste defeat, rattling off four submission wins in four fights, including a quick dismantling of Trevor Prangley last January.

This fight might be the first time we get to see Lawal’s wrestling.  A 3 time national wrestling champion, Mo has yet to win by submission, and has always let his fists do the talking.  With Gracie’s affinity for submissions, he’ll look to take this fight to the ground immediately, and I wouldn’t be surprised that 90% of the fight stays there.  This fight definitely will not go to a decision.  The former LHW champ will either score a knockout, or Gracie will score a submission for the win.  This is probably the hardest fight of the night to call.  Given the Gracies’ propensity for fighting on the ground, however, I think you’ll see Mo’s punching power from the feet stifled as Roger looks to wear him down with takedowns and will eventually grind out a submission victory.  Expect this one to possibly go deep into the third frame.

Prediction – Roger Gracie via Submission (Round 3)

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (C) vs. Luke Rockhold

It feels like forever since we’ve seen Rockhold, a man whose entire six-fight Strikeforce career is barely north of 15 minutes in total fight time.  In fact, Rockhold has never seen the second round of a fight in his entire pro MMA career. Despite an eighteen month layoff, Rockhold is still kind of the poster child of Strikeforce Challengers, having been there since the beginning.  Much like the WCW Power Plant putting its best graduates directly into the big shows 15 years ago, Rockhold goes straight from the Challengers circuit to a title fight against Souza, and you can be guaranteed “Jacare” is ready.

When comparing calibre of opponent coming into this fight, there is no contest. Only two men have beaten Jason Miller and submitted Robbie Lawler in the last 4 years: Jake Shields and Souza.  With the exception of a loss to Miller, Tim Kennedy‘s only career loss in the last ten years coming into this is to the Brazilian submission specialist.  Souza has been an absolute wrecking ball through the middleweight division.  If I can go back to the WCW analogy a bit here, Rockhold would be the Natural Born Thrillers to Jacare’s Millionaire’s Club.  Jacare has been pushed for all the world as a superstar, and he’s responded with a perfect Strikeforce record.  You’ll probably hear Mauro Ranallo and company refer to the night as Rockhold’s coming out party a few times, but when you’ve come out of a bear’s den and exit into a tiger cage, you’re still in for a world of trouble.  Expect Jacare to have done his homework, and take advantage of Rockhold’s cage rust before he’s able to shake it off.

Prediction: Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza via Submission (Round 1)

Antonio Silva vs. Daniel Cormier

If you don’t buy into Rockhold as the poster-child for the Challengers series then perhaps your choice would be Cormier?  Cormier started his career as a Challengers participant, took a jaunt over to winning the XMMA and King of the Cage heavyweight championships, and came back.  His last fight against Jeff Monson was a welcome into the world of big game mixed martial arts, and he welcomed it with outstretched arms, bloodying and easily defeating “The Snowman”.  Monson, a stout and compact 5’9 and 235 pounds is nowhere near the monster Cormier’s next opponent is.

Besides defeating Fedor Emelianenko in the first round of the tournament, “Bigfoot” Silva is known for a few things: His large stature (6’4, 265,) the giant footprint (possibly his own) tattooed across his back, and his hilarious Twitter profile picture.  When’s the last time you saw such an intimidating face posing in front of Cinderella’s castle at Disneyland?  He’s also known as being one of the best, and most unlikely underdogs in the sport.  Time and time again when under intense amount of pressure, Silva has the ability to remain calm, and face adversity with a smile on his face.  One would assume that unlike many of the fights he’s stepped in previously, he is the favorite going into this fight.

If you’re looking for a crisp, stylistic match for the ages, you’re going to be disappointed.  Silva and Cormier’s clash will not be pretty.  A gritty wrestling vs. jiu jitsu match will burst forth, or a simple match of fists on the feet.  Cormier looked powerful yet vulnerable against Monson, and Silva’s BJJ is crisp, but his tremendous size and lanky build always leaves him susceptible to openings ready for capitalization by someone of Cormier’s skill level.  This match will likely have a lot of back and forth action, where it will seem like it’s anybody’s fight to take, however, with the experience edge, and his track record under pressure, expect Silva to book his ticket to the finals.

Prediction – Antonio Silva via Unanimous Decision

Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov

The main event of this card is a PRIDE fan’s wet dream.  In one corner, you have Barnett, one of the best, yet most controversial heavyweights of the last ten years against Kharitonov, a man whose training team is mired in controversy themselves though a storm seemingly having passed given recent developments,

Barnett Has Night’s Best Performance at Overeem vs. Werdum

Kharitonov is an 11X PRIDE vet, going 8-3 in a run that included wins over (among others,) Pedro Rizzo and Semmy Schilt.  He is also the last man to hold a victory over Alistair Overeem.  Barnett enters as a 9X PRIDE vet himself (sporting a record of 5-4) and has not lost in nearly five years.  Barnett’s specialty is on the ground, where he is an accomplished wrestler, and holds a black belt in BJJ.  60% of Barnett’s wins have come by submission, where he will look to capitalize on Kharitonov’s weak sports.  A brawler by nature, it may be surprising to know that only once has Kharitonov lost by submission, where he put up very little resistance to the groundwork of Monson at DREAM 8 and lost in under two minutes.  An upset in the eyes of most MMA fans, that loss sent Kharitonov away from MMA for nearly two years, where he chose to compete in K-1 instead.

Since returning he’s made very quick work of Tatsuya Mizuno and Andrei Arlovski , the latter of whom he knocked out cold in the first round of the Grand Prix.  Barnett is a completely different style of fighter than those two, and Kharitonov has not arguably faced an opponent this well versed on the ground since Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira back in 2004.  Barnett was my original pick going into this tournament, and expect this main event to be a quick night for the Golden Glory Russian Mercenary.  Kharitonov’s enthusiastic and fearless style will always have a place in MMA.  It just won’t be in Strikeforce after this night.

Prediction – Josh Barnett via Submission (Round 2)

So there’s the fight card the way I see it.  This is going to be one of the better events Strikeforce will have this year, and possibly ever.  Top to bottom, Strikeforce is carting out some of its biggest names on their biggest stage.  The big card starts at 10:30 PM EST/7:30 PM Pacific and as always, can be viewed on Showtime in the US, and SuperChannel in Canada.

Hopefully all the dramatics surrounding Strikeforce and the tournament have ironed themselves out and we can look forward to a good night of fights. I’ll be watching and I hope you will be too!

See you cageside!