Pick a Card: Strikeforce Grand Prix Semifinals (PRELIMS)

It’s hard to find a Mixed Martial Arts promotion as manic as Strikeforce.  Nefarious for throwing their undercards together a couple weeks before the event, the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix has been a tragic train wreck of errors not seen since the WWF handed Ken Patera a mic and told him to cut a promo.

The tournament seemed so promising on paper:  At its core stood eight of the world’s best heavyweights not under Zuffa contracts ready to prove supreme.  A bit of luck and Fairy Tale magic would see beloved Russian tough guy Fedor Emelianenko face off against the renegade Dutchman (and heavyweight champion) Alistair Overeem in a flashbulb-filled final not seen since the days of PRIDE GP.  Unfortunately, as fate would have it, Fedor lost in the first round (and ultimately lost his job months later after another loss) and Overeem and Strikeforce parted ways after his victory over Fabricio Werdum.)  Now, some 7 months after the idea was idea was born, the landscape of the tournament looks nothing like it could have, there’s no Heavyweight Champion, and Scott Coker is now left to find glimpses of light in a dimming future for his promotion.  Until then, he has another round of his heavyweight tournament to carry on with.  Let’s take a look at the event and see how it breaks down with my fight predictions.

The news isn’t all bad.  HDNet will be airing the prelims for the event, and the lot definitely appear to be some great fights too.

Here is my breakdown of the undercard. Enjoy!

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Dominique Steele vs. Chris Mierzwiak

Both fighters make their Strikeforce debuts at this event, and will be the first ones up.  Neither bring in huge pro fight experience (Steele is 3-1 and Mierzwiak is 3-0) and only Mierzwiak has a notable win to his name (a retirement victory against Marcus Finch,) so given that, this will likely be the first time many fans will lay eyes on both of these fighters.  Steele brings in some very heavy hands (2 of his 3 victories have been submission due to strikes with the other a ref stoppage TKO) and Mierzwiak brings in 2 submission wins, and a dumb nickname (College.)  Both fighters have attained very quick wins (with Mierzwiak being the only one leaving the first round in his career) and I wouldn’t expect anything different here.  It’s always interesting watching Strikeforce/UFC/Bellator rookies in action.  They’re either too hesitant to make a move for fear of being caught, or they just throw caution to the wind and play “Tag or be tagged” (a la Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman from UFC 131) and let fate sort it out.  I see a bit more upside from Mierzwiak here.  If he doesn’t eat a hook from Steele in the opening seconds, I think he’ll take him down to the ground and wrestle him into a submission victory, though it will probably take a few attempts, and probably won’t be finished in the first round.

Prediction – Chris Mierzwiak via Submission (Second Round)

Alexis Davis vs. Amanda Nunes

This is a match with huge title ramifications.  Based on recent events, Nunes, Davis, Julia Budd, Julie Kedzie, and Ronda Rousey appear to be the pool for the next shot at Cris “Cyborg” Santos‘ featherweight women’s championship.  Kedzie lost to Davis, and is sidelined temporarily with an injury, so she’s out of the picture temporarily.  Davis brings more experience to the cage, having fought and beaten some of the 145-pound division’s bigger names.  Nunes, however, has explosive punching strikes and punching power not seen in a comparable light since Shane Carwin burst into the UFC three years ago.  Davis doesn’t have the same quick hands, with only one KO to her name in 2007.  Should Davis take this one, expect her to take on the winner of Budd and Rousey for the next shot at Santos.  If Nunes wins in highlight reel fashion, however, don’t be surprised if she bypasses Rousey and goes straight to fighting Cyborg for the title.  I think Davis is a much higher calibre of opponent than most of whom Nunes has faced before, however, the same thing was said about Budd, and that fight was over before I could grab a drink. I don’t expect Nunes to have the same steamrolling effect this time, but I do think she’ll take this one, though Davis will probably expose some holes in her game that will require one more fight before she’s ready for a crack at the title.

Prediction – Amanda Nunes by TKO

Rafael Cavalcante vs. Yoel Romero Palacio

Only in Strikeforce will can you see the recently defeated division champ competing on the third prelim fight of the fight for his first fight back.  In this morale-boosting outing, BJJ and Muay Thai practioner “Feijao” draws an unbeaten former Olympian in Palacio.  Palacio, a silver medalist in wrestling has hardly had time to exhibit his ground dominance, winning all of his fights by KO, with those of those coming in under a minute.

Cavalcante is no brawling slouch himself, with all of his victories coming by way of strikes.  This should be a fairly explosive fight, with Feijao pushing forward using his height and reach advantage to stave off any takedown attempts of Palacio.  That being said, if it does go to the ground, both men are well versed enough that they could easily work to neutralize the other’s submission attempts.  Don’t be surprised if this is your fight of the night.

Prediction – Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante by TKO

Mike Kyle vs. Marcus Rogerio De Lima

De Lima is a bit of a wildcard, and is by no means a household name in North America.  Longtime MMA fans may appreciate, however, that De Lima at one time was only one of two men (after Chael Sonnen) to defeat Paulo Filho, which he did in his last fight last October.  Kyle is no stranger to shocking underdog victories, taking home a highlight reel KO victory over “Feijao” back in 2009.  Kyle, however, never backs down from a fight, though he’s been a bit spotty throughout his career.  His erratic behavior in fights appears to have settled down now, and he should give De Lima a good run for his money.  Expect this fight to be a quick one, and expect somebody to get knocked out.  With neither man keen to go the distance, give a slight edge to De Lima, who will look to start forging his name in the minds of North American MMA fans.  Outside of that, this fight really has no significance to title contention, so armchair analysts can sit back and enjoy the fight for what it is without worrying about a trickle down effect.

Prediction – Marcus De Lima by TKO

Mike Kyle Discusses Fight with Grand Prix Semifinalist Antonio Silva

Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos vs. Jordan Mein

To the untrained eye, this appears to be a catastrophic mismatch.  Walk up to the casual fan, and chances are he’ll only have heard of Cyborg.  Santos has fought everywhere in his prolific career.  His resume boasts stopovers in PRIDE, Sengoku, Cage Rage and even Pancrase and he’s looking for a bit of redemption after a mismatched loss to Nick Diaz.  Mein is making his Strikeforce debut.  Edge to Cyborg right? Not quite.

Mein is a quiet up and coming Canadian who has won 9 of his last 10, and brings with him 22 victories, which almost matches his age (21.)  Mein looks to capture that same lightning-in-a-bottle phenomenon that fellow Canadian Rory MacDonald has before him.  Following a victories over vets Marius Zaromskis, Josh Burkman, and Joe Riggs, Mein signed to fight for Strikeforce, and has been immediately thrown into arguably his toughest challenge yet.

Expect this fight to stay standing at the beginning, and take to the ground once both fighters have established their game plans going forward.  While Mein’s recent stoppage wins have come via TKO, four of his first five victories came via submission, and with some training in BJJ, Mein and Santos are basically a wash on the ground, where either man could take the advantage.  This one should be a war to close out the prelims.  Mein does not seem to buckle to pressure, however, he has never fought on a grand stage like this.  While Cyborg has, and he has the experience advantage (despite less career victories,) expect this to come out in Mein’s favor, and begin his rise through the Welterweight ranks in Strikeforce.

Prediction – Jordan Mein via Unanimous Decision