The UFC's Art of War

He who wishes to fight must first count the cost.  The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. – Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Remember the World Fighting Alliance?  Perhaps not since only a generously estimated 300,000 watched their last event, King of the Streets, on 22 July, 2006.

After an aggressive free agent signing campaign that netted the WFA Fighters.com’s first-ranked light heavyweight “Rampage” Quinton Jackson (28-6), third-ranked light heavyweight “The Dragon” Lyoto Machida (12-0), eighth-ranked heavyweight “Texas Crazy Horse” Heath Herring (28-13), tenth-ranked welterweight “Mayhem” Jason Miller (20-5), former WEC Lightweight Champion “Razor” Rob McCullough (15-4), WEC Featherweight Champion “California Kid” Urijah Faber (20-1), and veterans “The Law” Matt Lindland (20-5), “El Guapo” Bas Rutten (28-4-1), and “The Beastman” Marvin Eastman (15-7-1), the Las Vegas-based promotion folded and eventually sold-out to cross town competitor the UFC.

Marquee names and great fighters don’t equal guaranteed market share.  The 2006 WFA final hurrah sold just 2,300 tickets and an estimated 50,000 PPV buys.

Marquee names and great fighters do cost a lot of green.

You don’t have to be an MBA to realize high costs and low sales don’t add up.

Hold that thought for a moment.  Switch gears.

A lot of MMA fans are confused since the UFC started cutting weight from their fighter roster.

Perhaps it started when heavyweight “Cro Cop” Mirko Filipovic (23-6-2) was granted release from his contract in February.  In March, third-ranked heavyweight “Maine-iac” Tim Sylvia was also granted release.

Many of the UFC’s unranked, but popular fighters have been released in the last month, perhaps perfectly symbolized by the widely reported release of heavyweight prospect “Irish” Jake O’Brien (10-1).  Yesterday, “The Serial Killer” Travis Lutter (9-5) announced he had been released too, to the dismay of many fans.

OK, now hold both thoughts.  Let’s review a few facts.

Fact: Second-ranked heavyweight “The Natural” Randy Couture (16-8) is paid $250,000 per win in base salary by the UFC.  Couture thinks he’s so underpaid that he’s refused to continue fighting for that salary.

Fact: M-1 Global formed to promote fights for fifth-ranked heavyweight “The Last Emperor” Fedor Emelianenko (27-1), but never produced an event due to Emelianenko’s prohibitive purse rendering any event immediately in the red, according to Adrenaline MMA CEO Monte Cox.

Fact: EliteXC offered Emelianenko $400,000 per win, which he turned down in favor of an undisclosed deal with Affliction.  (Emelianenko requested $2 million per fight according to ProElite Live Events President Gary Shaw.)

According to two of the most popular MMA promotions, somewhere between $250,000 and $400,000 is the market price for a top heavyweight.

But, the MMA market is more competitive than it ever has been and promotions are bidding up fighter purses.

Emelianenko eventually signed with Affliction for an undisclosed amount before Affliction has staged a single event.  Assume Emelianenko was offered more than $400,000 per win, beating EliteXC’s offer.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Emelianenko’s presence on a fight card guarantees he’ll make back the purse he’ll be paid.  Remember the WFA?

Promotions are in a rush to buy market share.  They have deep pockets and see MMA as a good investment.

Companies can buy market share, but they’ll pay a premium.  They’ll overpay for fighters who can’t deliver their salary in PPV buys.

UFC President Dana White knows the market is more competitive and saturated than ever before and competing promotions are willing to overpay for any fighter they can slap on a poster labeled “former UFC”.

The UFC can either try to outspend the competition buying-up and holding on to fighters; or, flood the market with fighters and let the competing promotions outbid each other into bankruptcy to feature “former UFC title contender Travis Lutter” at their next event.

The forum freaks who’re appalled White would release Lutter after two losses know they’re not going to shell out $44.95 to watch him gas after one round again.

But, Lutter isn’t going to bankrupt anyone.  It’s the big guys who’re the key to White’s strategy.

It’s the thinning UFC heavyweight class that’s confusing many fans.

White paid “Cro Cop” $1,050,000 to beat Eddie Sanchez (8-1), get mauled by “Napao” Gabriel Gonzaga (8-3), and nearly retire in the cage versus Cheick Kongo (11-4-1).  Can even the most loyal Filipovic fan contend White got his money’s worth?

White had to drop $200,000 every time tough Sylvia won, but Sylvia is one of the most disliked fighters in MMA.  The UFC couldn’t even headline the two-time champion’s third title challenge versus “Minotauro” Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-4-1) at UFC 81.  MMA rookie Brock Lesnar (1-1) was the main event.

Remember too, Emelianenko’s North American debut at PRIDE 32 broke no PPV or attendance records.

The heavyweight class salaries are irrational based on the revenues heavyweights generate.

White is chumming the MMA waters with fighters hoping sharks like Affliction, HDNet Fights, and EliteXC go on a feeding frenzy into bankruptcy like the WFA and BodogFight before them.