5 Reasons Why Nick Diaz Could Beat Paul Daley

Although the purchase of Strikeforce by the UFC’s parent company cast this fight into doubt, it’s recently been confirmed that Paul Daley will in fact be meeting Nick Diaz at Strikeforce’s upcoming “Diaz vs. Daley” event, currently scheduled for April 9, 2011. It’s one of the biggest matches of the year for Strikeforce, as arguably their best and most marketable champion meets quite possibly the last, great threat to his championship. But who wins this fight? Here’s my say on just that: a new edition of “5 Reasons Why”, featuring the epic upcoming showdown between Nick Diaz and Paul Daley. Starting us off is five reasons why Diaz could beat Daley, with the reverse soon to follow. Let’s get to it.

5. Paul Daley was rushed to a title shot because they’re running out of interesting opponents for Nick Diaz.

Paul Daley had one fight in Strikeforce and was immediately awarded a shot at the title. Granted, that one win was a highlight-reel KO, but is one fight really enough to prove that Diaz is ready for a shot at the championship of a high-level promotion? Plus, that one fight was against Scott Smith, who had just gotten TKO’d by Cung Le and had lost two of his last three fights before meeting Daley. The fact that Daley may not be able to deal with the pressure of rocketing to the top is a key weakness that, if present, Diaz can wholeheartedly exploit.

4. Paul Daley continues to have issues with his weight.

Paul Daley has missed the mark and tipped the scales over his weight class five times in his eleven most-recent fights. He missed weight in Shark Fights, he missed weight in his recent fight at BAMMA, he even missed weight in his high-profile run in the UFC. If Daley comes into this fight overweight, this may even be changed to a non-title bout. Even if he does come in at weight, it’s becoming painfully obvious that the monster weight cut he must undergo leaves Daley very gassed if the fight goes past the first or second round. And this is a five-round fight… if Daley makes weight.

3. Nick Diaz has faced experienced strikers before.

The last five opponents Nick Diaz has faced have all been high-level strikers. Scott Smith has fourteen wins by (T)KO. Marius Zaromskis has twelve. Hayato Sakurai has eleven. KJ Noons has seven and has competed as a professional boxer. Evangelista Santos has eleven. Daley is certainly more imposing with twenty wins by (T)KO, and I’m not arguing that that’s not an impressive number. It’s very impressive that Daley has KO’d so many people, and I’ll talk about that a little later. But what I am arguing is that Daley isn’t bringing anything to the table that Diaz hasn’t seen before, except for stronger and harder fists.

2. Nick Diaz hasn’t lost in over three years.

That’s when he lost to KJ Noons due to a cut, a decision that’s still debated to this day. But a loss is a loss, and what’s remarkable is that Diaz hasn’t posted up a loss since that one way back in 2007. Since then he’s been on an absolute monster tear, finishing people left and right in a variety of ways. Diaz has fought and won nine times since that loss, with eight stoppage victories. Diaz is quite likely one of the most legitimate champions in MMA and especially in Strikeforce. This is arguably the toughest test of Daley’s career.

And the number-one reason Nick Diaz could beat Paul Daley is…

1. If this fight goes to the ground, consider Daley submitted.

Here’s the best way I can describe Paul Daley’s lack of ground game: this Achilles Heel is as big as the Trojan Horse. Time and time and time again, this is the one aspect of the game that Daley has shown a supreme susceptibility to. It doesn’t matter if it’s against submission specialists or high-level wrestlers, if the fight goes to the ground and Daley goes on his back, he’s not a dead man walking, he’s a dead fish flopping. Daley’s lack of ground game is by far his biggest weakness, especially against a Cesar Gracie-trained grappler with eight submission wins on his record who just got done submitted a striking-based challenger. If Diaz plays it smart and takes this fight to the ground for the entire fight, Daley will eventually serve up his neck, a limb, or a ligament on a silver platter.

And that’s what I think, fans and friends. Stay tuned for the reverse, soon to follow. But what about you? What are your thoughts on this upcoming match-up?