Saturday night at UFC 157: “Rousey vs. Carmouche”, the main event of the evening was a women’s bantamweight championship bout – the first women’s bout in UFC history. Somewhere lost in the shuffle, however, was the light-heavyweight co-main event between former champions Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and Dan “Hendo” Henderson. This encounter was billed as a title eliminator bout, although knowing how many times, or how few times, the UFC actually follows through with fights labeled as “title eliminator”, we shouldn’t be surprised if Machida gets passed up once more.
The current champion, Jon “Bones” Jones, is scheduled to face Chael Sonnen at UFC 159 in April. Jones is the heavy favorite and if he dot’s his I’s and crosses his T’s, Jones should come away with a victory and his title intact. So it’s relatively safe to say that the winner of the Machida/Henderson bout would move on to face Jones sometime this year. Well, after three rather uneventful rounds, Machida managed to sneak away with a win. There’s a saying in boxing that goes, “win this fight, look good next time”. Sometimes this is exactly what needs to be done in order to ensure that “next time” – even if it’s not aesthetically pleasing. So it really should come as no surprise that Machida played it as safe as he could, even more than usual. With that being said, let’s look ahead and analyze just what Machida can do differently this time against Jones.
In the eyes of many watching, Machida actually won Round One of his fight with Jones at UFC 140 in December of 2011, before Jones came back strong to finish Machida in the second stanza. So if there’s any sort of studying or research Machida can do, for all intents and purposes, he’s done about a quarter of the work already.
We saw a strategy that Machida implemented in his bout with Henderson that may potentially lay the groundwork for a successful strategy against Jones, and that strategy is all about leg-kicks. Jones’ nickname is Bones, not because he’s great at dominoes but because he’s tall and in his younger years was extremely thin. Simply by taking a look at his legs, one can come to the conclusion that his legs may be a pretty big chink in the armor. Although Machida’s leg-kicks did little in terms of being a major factor in his victory against Henderson, it may very well prove to be a very important commodity against a tall, thin-legged champion within a twenty-five minute championship main event.
And there it is. What can Machida employ against the utterly dominant light-heavyweight champ that may help him secure a victory where one eluded him before? Leg-kicks. It’s all about the leg-kicks.
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If Lyoto Machida just gets better at his wrestling he really does have a great chance of beating JJ in the rematch. It was JJ’s wrestling base that did the most damage to Lyoto.
Honestly, Machida is the only full-time competitor in LHW that has the tools to beat Jones.
Gustafsson is good, but I don’t think he’s ready for someone in Jones’ caliber yet, beating a broken down, old Shogun and Gegard Mousasi(because he will) shouldn’t grant you a title shot. Maybe if he beats Henderson, i’ll buy it.
Cormier has great wrestling, good striking, good grappling, used to fighting huge dudes(Bigfoot,Barnett,etc.)… I don’t why, but i’m not really sold on him beating Jones either.
Henderson has extremely powerful striking(H-Bomb), but he’s coming off a loss to a fighter who got dominated by the champion; where he was literally swinging at air the whole night and I think he’s only a puncher’s chance of beating Jones.
The only guy at LHW that can dethrone the dominant champion is Lyoto Machida. He presents the most problems, he’s the only man who’s really given Jones serious issues in the octagon(Rashad did, but not as significantly).
He staggered Jones in the first, completely outstruck him in the first, and tagged him a couple of good times in the second before Jones turned the tide.
After the flurry he landed on Jones early in the second he slowed down pretty badly, he also gained 22 pounds of muscle to deal with his strength, I believe he gassed in that round and that’s why Jones was able to land the staggering power shot.
Another reason Machida gassed, is he kept attacking Jones, he was the one pressing the attack, constantly if I might add. If Machida stays at 201-202 lbs, utilizes his speed and accuracy(staying away and countering; not attacking), and basically doing what he did in the Henderson fight; he could take home the UD or Split.
If he does what he did in the Hendo fight, it would be an excellent gameplan, he also doesn’t have to worry as much; due to the fact he doesn’t have to worry about an H-Bomb.
It would also be a good technique to use leg kicks late in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th Rounds.
There’s only a handful of people I believe can beat Jones; Silva, Machida, Velasquez, or JDS.
All Macheets as to do is the same thing he always does, and not get caught with a takedown or one of Jones overhands (obviously a big if). He was doing great against Jones in the first round, and if he can pull that off for the better of 5 rounds, potentially getting some power shots in and rushing him when if Jones get’s hurt, then a win for him is not that unrealistic. I think Jones’s takedowns is going to be Macheet’s biggest fear, Jones has ruthless G&P and Macheets, with all due respect to his black belt, hasn’t shown a damn thing off his back.
In short, Macheets has to do what he does best but supercharged – be elusive as fuck
Think you’re right though. Gotta drag him into late rounds and slow him down with some leg kicks. Most people cannot comfortably land leg kicks on jones, but machida was able to. Mac has to be conservative and embrace his elusiveness. He stood in front of jones for a second in firdt fight and that is all it took to eat a big overhand right. From there the momentum shifted.
I agree, that overhand right was pretty devastating. It dazed machida and set jones up for his takedown. However, I don’t agree with dragging it out for 5 rounds. Machida won’t be able to dance around jones like the Henderson fight. Unlike hendo, Jones has nothing to fear. Jon will put constant pressure on Chida. And when Chida decides to throw those karate leg kicks, Jones will secure a single or double power, take him down, and rain bows (not the pretty colorful ones). Watch the shogun fight again and observe what happens when you try to kick Jones legs. *Spoiler alert: you get taken down and pounded in brutal fashion.
Really? That’s all you have to say. Anyone who’s even seen a few fights of MMA knows that leg kicks are risky when attempted against strong wrestlers because of the possibility of opening yourself up to take downs. I’m tired of people saying “look at Jon jones skinny legs. These fighters are idiots for not kicking them.” Don’t you think that these fighters with a plethora of cage experience know to attack the legs? They want to, but can’t. Jon jones wrestling pedigree makes it almost foolish to throw leg kicks and open yourself up to a fight ending take down. So yes, throw more leg kicks machida, get taken down again, and get your face opened up with viscious elbows…again.
Fair points Juice10, obviously leg kicks against Jon Jones are not easy, but body kicks on Jones are harder because he’s taller then Henderson. Machida will have to mix in spinning leg kicks to the body too, he’ll have to develop a gameplan consisting of a variety of attacks, and also specific count moves to Jones’s kicks. maybe even wait till Jones does a leg kick and go for a sweep or something. there’s no one thing that will beat Jones, but a steady stream of outside leg kicks could hurt Jones’s mobility. and sure that could lead to Jones taking Machida down and then submitting him. but i think since that fight Machida has improved his submission defense and it could be tougher this time.
i think Machida will be even more conservative in their rematch. Machida’s gotta hope that Jones makes a mistake and he can get him off balance, then try to land punching combos when he gets in range.
Against Jones, Machida cannot allow Jones to get him down. his submission defense was great against Henderson, but that was because Henderson is so much smaller then Jones. Machida will probably come out more conservative in a rematch against Jon Jones and get the fight into the later rounds by using leg kicks. against Henderson, Machida had many leg kicks to the body, but against Jones i think he will go for more kicks downstairs to Jones’s legs. try to take away Jones movement then by the 4th and 5th Jones might get tired and maybe then Machida can set up punches.
Machida’s just gotta take his time and setup big kicks against Jones. Jones is so physically lanky Machida will have to be focused. His margin for error is much smaller against Jones but his movement can really cause problems for Jones. Like you said he won the first round against Jones last time.
Leg kicks are to the legs. This supposed “spinning leg kick to the body” simply does not exist.
spinning *back* kick to the body. its usually to the stomach but with Jones he’s so tall you have to aim it higher.
Only one of three judges gave Machida the first round, how is that winning the first round?
Why would that matter? Machida obviously landed more significant strikes in that round(a leg kick, 2 body kicks, 4 punches, and the left that staggered Jones). Jones only landed 2 leg kicks that did no damage to Machida.
The judges also gave Rampage the win, even though Machida obviously won Round 1 & 3 and they also gave Machida a 29-28 win against Henderson, even though it was obviously a 30-27 win.