UFC 109: Relentless Main Card Picks

I thought I would sit down and make my picks for UFC 109 today. We usually make picks on MMA Gospel Radio and we made a few with The Fight Pastor however I have had more time to think and these are my official picks, enjoy.

Paulo Thiago (8-1) versus “Quick’ Mike Swick (14-3)

Fighters.com fourth-ranked welterweight Thiago takes on ninth-ranked Swick. Thiago was originally slated to fight seventh-ranked “Kos” Josh Koscheck(14-4) but that fight feel through and his teammate stepped up to get revenge.

Thiago is primarily known for his grappling but after the brutal uppercut KO of Koscheck many have been talking about his punching prowess, including Paulo himself.

Swick is a fast and aggressive striker with amazing takedown defense. His striking, while not technically perfect, has vastly improved and his use of the counter-punch is something he has relied on after his stint on The Ultimate Fighter Season One.

Thiago has a great chin and even though he knocked out Kos, his striking is sloppy. He loves to drop his hands and against the speedy Swick this could be trouble.

Swick is looking to get a rematch with fifth-ranked “Outlaw” Dan Hardy (23-6) and even though he is taking this fight on short notice he has quite the advantage in training with Kos and third-ranked Jon Fitch (20-3). Fitch, in his usual style, ground out a decision win over Paulo.

I know Paulo could throw that Kos shot and catch Swick but I feel Swick is going to work to keep this fight standing and try to look for those dropped hands of Thiago. The one trend from Swick that concerns me is when he has fought in big fights in the past he seems to hold back.

The Gospel on this one is Mike Swick by Decision.

Demian Maia (10-1) versus Dan Miller (11-2)

Dan Miller is a hardcore MMA fan’s dream. Just a gritty fighter who loves to grind and usually puts on quite the show.

Fighters.com sixth-ranked Damian Maia has the best MMA jiu-jitsu in the sport and is looking to rebound from his crushing knocking out at the hands of fourth-ranked “Great” Nate Marquardt (29-8-2).

Miller has good but not great muay thai skills and just recently received his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. There are differences in skills from one black belt to the next and I feel Dan will want nothing to do with hitting the mat with Maia.

Maia has rudimentary striking at best and will need to take this to the ground but Dan has a good grappling game and will need to use that to keep this fight standing where he has the clear advantage.

This fight may hit the mat and get stalled. I don’t think this will be a Fight of the Night candidate but I feel Maia, if his psyche has recovered from that KO, will catch Miller.

The Gospel is Maia by late third-round submission

“The Terror” Matt Serra (9-6) versus “Twinkle Toes” Frank Trigg (19-7)

The smack alone before this fight has been epic however I don’t feel the fight will live up to the hype. Serra has said he refuses to lose to a man with a tramp stamp while Trigg has made cracks about Serra being a guido. Great stuff from these two guys.

The fight though will not be a barn burner. Matt Serra is another jiu-jitsu black belt but in contrast to Maia, he has not finished a fight via submission in eight years.

Trigg is a wrestler at heart and although Serra has not posed a threat on the ground in years, Trigg’s kryptonite is the rear naked choke.

Serra will likely want to turn this into a stand up war that will make boxing fans cringe as neither man has very clean striking.

I think Frank’s size and strength advantage will play a huge role in this fight

In the end Trigg will need to use a smothering top game to defeat Serra as a loss for him could mean leaving the UFC.

Gospel: Frank Trigg by unanimous decision

I will skip the Sonnen versus Marquardt fight as I wrote a piece this week on my thoughts of that fight..basically it will be Nate winning and getting the next title shot.

This leads us to the much talked about main event.

“The Natural” Randy Couture (17-10) versus “The Hammer” Mark Coleman (16-9)

You either love this fight or hate it. Some see it as two over-the-hill fighters making their last stand and trying to stay in a sport that is passing them by. Others see it as a fight they have been waiting to see since UFC 17.

Tenth-ranked heavyweight, but now fighting at light heavyweight, Couture is a greco roman wrestler who helped to define dirty boxing in MMA.

Mark Coleman is a freestyle wrestler who is the inventor of brutal ground and pound.

Mark has not evolved over the years like Randy has and this is a major area of concern in this fight.

Randy has taken his wrestling and used it to push fighters against the cage, use his dirty boxing and win fight after fight when he has been told he is to old.

While Mark did beat Couture the last time they met, in the 1989 Olympic Wrestling Festival, it was only by a point and much has changed since then.

The first key to this fight is obviously wrestling. While I feel Mark was the better wrestler, the additions to Randy’s game will help him to keep this fight standing where he has a huge advantage over Coleman.

The second key is cardio, cardio, cardio. Randy has it and Mark lacks it. Randy will want to keep the pressure on Mark, pushing him against the cage, using his dirty boxing and wearing him down.

Mark needs this fight to hit the mat with him in top position so that he can use that ground and pound to shock the world. Sadly for Mark he will not see this come to fruition.

Randy will tire Mark out and end up getting the takedown himself and beat Coleman at his own game.

I am a born and bred Buckeye and it hurts me to say, Randy Couture wins via TKO due to ground and pound in round two.