My Thoughts On Brock Lesnar vs. Junior Dos Santos: Lesnar Has More Of A Chance Than You May Think

As was to be expected, the entire MMA world at large is buzzing about the announcement that Brock Lesnar and Junior dos Santos will coach opposite one another on the landmark thirteenth season of the long-running UFC reality TV show “The Ultimate Fighter”. Many around the internet are eagerly and already looking forward to the end of the season, when the two coaches fight each other. Well, I just can’t let a big topic like this go by without throwing my hat into the mix, so here’s my take on Brock Lesnar vs. Junior dos Santos.

I’d like to start by saying something very few fans think is true nowadays, something that even Lesnar fans don’t want to bring up because they think it’ll open the figurative floodgates of negative comments and that they’ll soon get laughed out of the conversation. But if you’ve followed me for any length of time, you’d know by now that I’ll say what I believe no matter how it’s perceived. So here it is.

Brock Lesnar has a good chin.

Everyone is talking about how Junior dos Santos may end up eating Lesnar alive if the fight stays on the feet for any length of time. It’s true that JDS’s striking is leagues above Brock’s, but fans are going too far by insinuating that Lesnar has a glass chin. Lesnar has been subjected to some brutal punishment by some of the best strikers the UFC’s Heavyweight division has to offer. His chin has taken the best shots of both Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez, only Cain was able to seal the deal and put Brock away.

I honestly think Lesnar’s main problem is his inability to keep his composure when he starts getting hit.

Even though he has a good chin, Lesnar has no earthly idea what to do when he starts taking a beating. And I think that, above all else, will dictate who wins this fight.

Lesnar has all the physical tools necessary to achieve UFC superstardom, that’s a proven fact that I don’t think anyone can argue. He hits hard even if his technique is sloppy, his ground and pound is vicious, his takedowns are great, his cardio is off the charts for a man his size. What Lesnar needs is to focus on the mental aspect of the fight game. I truly think Lesnar fumbled against Carwin and Velasquez simply because nobody had ever really kicked his ass before.

If Lesnar keeps his composure, he’s going to win this fight and may win it in dominating fashion.

It’s true that no one has been able to keep Junior dos Santos on the ground, but JDS has never fought a dominant powerhouse and highly prestigious wrestler like Lesnar. Cain Velasquez was also a dignified wrestler and he still trained for months with huge Heavyweight fighters to best replicate Brock’s ferocious takedowns, and not only that, Velasquez trains with the single best MMA camp for wrestling-based fighters, the American Kickboxing Academy. Junior dos Santos does train with the Nogueira brothers, but Lesnar has shown considerable improvements in his submission defense. If it goes to the ground, Lesnar should be able to control JDS.

If it stays standing, of course the fight favors JDS. His striking is virtually unparalleled  in the UFC. Lesnar will have to be at his absolute best both physically and mentally in order to survive JDS’s onslaughts. I truly believe that quite a lot of this fight focuses on Lesnar’s mental state. Can he lose a striking exchange without flopping and flailing around? Can he keep himself composed when he starts getting hit, rather than literally running away? If he can, he should be able to survive long enough to keep trying to take JDS down and bring the fight into his element. If he can’t, we’re in for a mirror-image of Velasquez/Lesnar, except this time Lesnar will probably be outright KO’d.

This fight isn’t about Lesnar’s glass chin. It’s about his weak heart. It’s very clear that Lesnar had no way of coping with the pressure both Carwin and Velasquez put on him. But if he can find that fighter’s spirit, if he can find that will to survive, he’s got a great shot of taking down Junior dos Santos.

Ultimately I’m picking JDS to win this one. But as a Lesnar fan, I wanted to point out that Brock has much more of a chance than most people are giving him. It’s not a remote possibility that Lesnar will beat JDS. But in the here and now, Junior dos Santos has all the tools necessary to beat Brock even at his absolute best. I’ll never count out Brock Lesnar, but I also said that I’d never again bet against Junior dos Santos. And while I plan to break that promise when JDS inevitably faces Cain Velasquez, I really have no choice but to join the majority and call for an early-round (T)KO victory for Junior dos Santos. Part of me sure wishes I’m proven wrong, though, and another part knows that I just might be by the time it’s all said and done.

And what about you, fans and friends? What do you think of this fight?