Heavy Wait Part 11: What Brett Rogers Needs To Do In Order To Win It All

Welcome back fans and friends to another edition of “Heavy Wait”, my “maxi-series” where I examine the upcoming Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix. With this eleventh edition of the series, I’ll have now covered all eight of the tournament’s participants, and given my thoughts on how they could possibly defeat all seven of their possible opponents. And last but certainly not least we have the man with dynamite in his hands that took Strikeforce and the MMA world at large by storm not too long ago: Brett Rogers.

And don’t forget, this section of “Heavy Wait” follows a modified “Top 5” format.

Fedor Emelianenko: Don’t even try to throw haymakers, Fedor’s counter-striking is too good. Don’t take it to the ground, either, Fedor has too many submission options. Brett’s best bet is to smother Fedor against the cage, and when that happens, Brett needs to knee Fedor’s gut and try to bust him open with short-arm punches, even elbows. I just don’t see Brett KO’ing Fedor, so Brett would be best served to “embrace the grind”, as the saying goes.

Antonio Silva: The giant likes to brawl, I say: give him that brawl. Dig those heels in, load up with the power punches, and have at it. Silva’s long arms mean that his punches hurt no matter where they’re thrown, but they hurt the most when he swings them from afar. Brett needs to close the distance and dirty-box with Silva. He should try to take Silva to the ground at least once, just to see if he can control the big man and dish out some Ground and Pound. It’s going to be a down-and-dirty fight, Rogers will do best if he embraces that fact.

Alistair Overeem: Do not, absolutely do not allow Alistair Overeem the chance to close the distance and grapple. Overeem is a monster Heavyweight, but his chin is not made of granite. Rogers needs room to throw, because if it becomes a close-quarters brawl, Overeem’s K-1 background will be too much to handle. “The Grim” should use jabs to create distance, he shouldn’t leg kick because he doesn’t want to risk being taken down, and when Overeem tries to rush in and engage, Rogers needs to counter quickly and move away if Overeem’s chin holds up. If he keeps this strategy in mind, eventually Rogers can clip Overeem in an exchange and get the TKO.

Fabricio Werdum: I think the key to victory here will be if Rogers can land damaging shots without telegraphing them. If Werdum gets too comfortable with Brett’s rhythm, he’ll be able to counter Brett, and eventually one of those counters will involve a takedown. Rather than headhunt, Rogers should land cumulative damage to all areas of the body, softening Werdum up for a late-round TKO. Going for the brilliant KO may have brought Rogers to the dance, but it opens him up to far too many negative outcomes if he tries it against someone as versatile and tough as Werdum.

Andrei Arlovski: Andrei will be too focused on not letting history repeat itself, so if he shows up in any proper shape to fight, Rogers shouldn’t immediately bull-rush and hope that lightning strikes twice. Not now, not after he’s lost two straight by TKO. What Brett needs to do is pace himself and, although it goes against his nature, look to take this fight to the ground. With Arlovski’s outright abandonment of the ground game in his recent fights, Rogers would be best served taking Arlovski down, controlling him on the ground with his power and bulk, and then dishing out some brutal Ground and Pound until Arlovski’s lights are once again turned out.

Sergei Kharitonov: In a way, my thoughts on Rogers’ strategy against Kharitonov is very similar to the strategy I think he should use against Antonio Silva. If Sergei wants to brawl, Brett should meet him in the middle of the cage and start slugging it out. But if Sergei switches modes and instead tries to tactfully take out “The Grim”, Rogers should also change up his gameplan and focus on the ground game. Even if he’s not successful with his takedown attempts, it’ll bring both men right back into a close-quarters exchange, and that should favor Rogers.

Josh Barnett: The key to victory here is pretty simple: counter often, don’t get taken down, and don’t get lured into a brawl. Make no mistake, Rogers should still look for the (T)KO, but Josh Barnett fights best when he’s in a bloody brawl. It brings out his killer instinct and warrior spirit, so if Rogers wants to make a definitive statement, he needs to try to counter-KO Barnett instead of slugging it out and seeing which one of their chins holds up, because nothing short of a straight KO will take Barnett out after he gets fired up.

And so that wraps up the eleventh entry into the “Heavy Wait” series, fans and friends. Check back tomorrow for the three-part finale! And what do you think? What does Brett Rogers have to do to win the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix?