Heavy Wait Part 8: What Andrei Arlovski Needs To Do In Order To Win It All

Hello once more fans and friends and welcome to another edition of “Heavy Wait”. We’re seven articles in to what I like to call my “maxi-series” focused on the upcoming Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, and today marks entries eight and nine. I’ve now covered four of the eight athletes of the tournament and given my thoughts on what they need to do in order to beat all seven of their possible opponents. Now it’s time to focus on the second leg of the tournament, starting with former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei Arlovski.

Remember, this sub-section of “Heavy Wait” uses a modified “Top 5” format.

Fedor Emelianenko: Never, never ever (and I do mean never) throw another flying knee at Fedor Emelianenko. Just don’t do it. Arlovski looked to be doing a pretty good job against Fedor before he was on the wrong end of what many consider the year’s best KO. Arlovski needs to avoid running into any of Fedor’s power punches period, and that applies to a lot more than just not doing any stupid flying knees. Arlovski needs to circle away constantly from Fedor’s power shots and open him up with peppering strikes. Arlovski’s best chance of beating Fedor is to constantly figure out Fedor’s range and constantly adapt to Fedor’s changes.

Antonio Silva: What does that first “M” in MMA stand for, again? Arlovski’s main fault in his first fight with Silva is that he used an ultra-traditional boxing stance. It’s time to mix it up to bring the big man down, because Arlovski’s chin seems able to withstand Silva’s blows. Arlovski should start taking more chances. He also needs to attack at angles, utilize leg kicks and knee strikes and, for the sake of my sanity, he needs to remember that he’s got a pretty good Sambo background. Even if he pops right back up or forces “Bigfoot” to stand right back up, some good takedowns go a long way.

Alistair Overeem: I hate to say this, but I’m having a hard time picturing Andrei Arlovski beating Alistair Overeem. Arlovski’s best bet may simply be to pull the trigger the second the first bell rings and go for broke. Arlovski shouldn’t give Overeem a chance to get comfortable, and he shouldn’t give Overeem a chance to take the lead. I know this is pretty much a “Hail Mary” as far as fight strategies go, but it’s honestly one of the few ways I think Arlovski could beat Overeem.

Fabricio Werdum: Arlovski needs to keep it standing, but he also should play it smart. Werdum probably won’t KO him, but unless Arlovski is sure that Werdum is a few punches away from going into the land of dreams, he should follow Werdum to the mat with an extreme level of caution. Likewise, Arlovski would be best served stuffing takedowns rather than trying to force Werdum to eat a knee, because there’s always a chance that Werdum will simply absorb that knee, continue to drive through, and score the takedown. As a pure stand-up affair, Arlovski has all the tools necessary to once again beat Fabricio Werdum.

Sergei Kharitonov: It’s all about counter-striking until an opportunity presents itself, and then bull-rushing to get the finish even if he absorbs some damage when doing so. Sergei swings wildly and hits hard, but Arlovski has fought and beat opponents who use that style, so he’s very familiar with what Sergei brings to the table. If Arlovski uses his head and not his heart, he stands a very good chance of beating Sergei.

Josh Barnett: I think Arlovski can afford to slug it out with Barnett if Barnett tries to brawl, but Arlovski needs to back up and adjust the second he feels that he’s not getting the better of the striking game. Barnett is a gamer, he won’t go down easy and he’s not really fighting to his full potential until he tastes his own blood. If Arlovski continues to win exchanges in the pocket, he should stick to engaging and engaging frequently, and if he doesn’t, he may be better suited to adapting frequently and focusing more on counter-striking Barnett.

Brett Rogers: Arlovski needs to not give Rogers one single chance to bum-rush, because if he does “The Grim” can always hit another fast flurry that knocks Arlovski down and puts him out. If Rogers comes in like a bull, Arlovski shouldn’t even try to counter, he should either shoot for a takedown or get out of the way. The key here is to play the matador: Rogers will come in headhunting, hoping for history to repeat itself, and if Arlovski knows what’s good for him he’ll duck, dodge, and land peppering shots until Rogers tires himself out. When that happens, then it’s time to let loose and look to win some rounds or even possibly finish Rogers.

So there you have it, fans and friends. What about you? What do you think Arlovski’s chances are in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix?