Heavy Wait Part 4: What Fedor Emelianenko Needs To Do In Order To Win It All
By: Oliver Saenz Posted On: January 7, 2011 at 1:47pm
Hello once more fans and friends and welcome back to the “maxi-series” called “Heavy Wait: The Hunt for Strikeforce Gold”. Last time on Heavy Wait, I addressed some of the negativity concerning the planned Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, but make no mistake, the goal of this series is to get everyone pumped up for what I just know will be an amazing tournament. Currently, I’ve addressed the possible negatives as well as going over the positives and what I think will happen if the tournament lives up to its potential. And now we get into the real meat of “Heavy Wait”: an eight-part series where I examine what each and every fighter in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix has to do in order to ultimately win it all. So let’s get started with one of the major names of the tournament: the one and only Fedor Emelianenko. This is “Heavy Wait: What Fedor Needs To Do In Order to Win It All”.
This eight-part series will feature a restructured “Top 5” format in order to give fans a quick rundown on what I think a Heavyweight Grand Prix participant needs to do in order to beat all seven of his possible opponents. Everything else is pretty much self-explanatory, so let’s get right to it.
Antonio Silva: Fedor needs to avoid Silva’s hands as much as possible. The man is a gargantuan behemoth, any shot he throws hurts simply because of how big he is and how long his arms are. If it goes to the ground, Fedor needs to grab one of those arms quick and get an armbar, or else Silva may be able to finally crack Fedor’s chin with those big fists of his. If Fedor relies on his super-effective counter-striking, it should come through for him.
Alistair Overeem: Fedor needs to find some way to crack Overeem’s chin, and he needs to do it early. If Overeem is caught in the early minutes of the bout, it’s going to be very demoralizing to him even if he survives. If Fedor can test Overeem’s chin and weaken his resolve, he should be able to come through with a Unanimous Decision win. Going for the power KO or submission simply leaves Fedor open to too much, the master strategist must stick to his gameplan or else Overeem stands a good chance of winning.
Fabricio Werdum: Two words: don’t grapple. As hard as this is to say as a Fedor fan, Emelianenko should abandon the ground game entirely and focus on his stand-up, which is far superior to Fabricio Werdum’s. I honestly don’t think Fedor should even risk it if he knocks Werdum down, anything less than a straight KO leaves too much of an opportunity for the impossible to repeat itself. If Fedor plays it safe and stays on his feet, this fight is his to win.
Andrei Arlovski: It’s time to be aggressive, you can’t duplicate magic and Andrei Arlovski will probably never throw another flying knee at Fedor ever again. If Fedor gets one clean opening, Arlovski is as good as KO’d. What Fedor should do is hunt for such an opening, because if the first fight proved anything, it’s that Arlovski could possibly take Fedor to a close decision but lacks the power to outright KO him. With the power clearly in Fedor’s hands, he honestly stands the best chance of winning this fight if he starts headhunting.
Sergei Kharitonov: Kharitonov is the odd man out in this tournament, but he still poses a threat to Fedor as a high-level striker. But Fedor has beaten high-level strikers in the past, and the gameplan he used against them should be the one he uses against Kharitonov. If Fedor can duck, dodge, and counter, Sergei realistically doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Josh Barnett: Again, it all comes down to crafting a good gameplan and sticking to it. These two probably won’t knock each other out, but Fedor should do his best to take a commanding lead by smothering Barnett on the floor and countering him on the feet. If Fedor is able to assert his control on Barnett early and often, Barnett won’t be able to do much to regain the favor of the judges.
Brett Rogers: Just like when he beat him the first time, Fedor Emelianenko needs to fight smarter, not harder. He needs to avoid Brett’s bombs, out-grapple him when he can, and look to land the same sweet counter that nearly knocked Brett’s head off his shoulders in their first encounter.
So, that’s what I think, fans and friends. What about you? What does Fedor have to do to beat the various opponents he may end up facing before all is said and through?
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Comments
fedor vs overeem is going to be a 50/50 chance, personally i think fedor will have a hard enough time getting past silva, let alone overeem
This is a great MMA event. If Fedor were to win this thing it would be the coup de grace of an absolutely fabulous career. GO FEDOR!
Pretty good overview. I was thinking a lot of the same.
I disagree on one point: Fedor not being able to knock out Barnett. Barnett is well rounded and one of my faves, but he is way to slow for Fedor. Fedor will pick him apart in the stand up. I see Barnett winning the right division and Fedor winning the left. Ironically, I think his match with Barnett will be his easiest.
Good idea on Werdum: “Fedor, you’re a master on the ground, but Werdum is too good. Use your fists, he’s way too slow for you standing.”
Fedor’s real threat is Overeem. Yet Overeem doesn’t have Fedor’s stand up speed (even though he might, technically, be a more developed striker). Fedor will be way too elusive for Overeem. Fedor will catch him in an exchange, but it will take a while. Fedor will be patient. People who bull rush Overeem get dropped. Fedor will break Overeem down first and wait until Overeem is frustrated and not thinking clearly.
If Fedor wins this tournament and revenges his loss against Werdum – he is no doubt the best HW and P4P the best fighter in the sport.
If a 5’11.5″ Fedor lost all the belly-fat, he’d weigh somewhere between 185-205Ib. And meanwhile he takes on opponents that weigh an average of 250Ib with an average height of 6’4″.
It’s amazing what this guy can do with the physical endowments he’s given.
UFC HWs (Cain, Lesnar, JDS ect…) are NOT better/talented than than Fedor, Overeem & Werdum.
I’m not clear why people think Fedor shouldn’t try to wrestle with Werdum. Isn’t Fedor’s main strength Sambo rather than striking? Yeah Fedor’s a great tactical brawler, but personally I’d rather see Fedor take on Werdum on the mat. That would be a great fight and a good display of skill by both combatants.
If Fedor wins this comp, there is no question about his legacy and talent. But this is going to be a long drawn out affair. He is favorite to win, im not sure, but that’s why everyone loves to watch him, you never know, there always a little doubt and then he does the impossible. I do hope he wins just too see if Dana White comments about how he still hasn’t faced anyone in the last 5 years!!
@Guillermo Lande
I know right. Knowing Fedor he’d take it to the ground again because he’s that confident in himself and his abilities. I just think he jumped into the Werdum’s gaurd way too early. If it had happened a couple minutes later… Fedor would have easily slipped out of that submission because of the sweat.
@Guillermo Lande
no offense, but did you see his fight with Werdum? i’m Fedor’s biggest fan, but his grappling is not on the same level with Werdum’s.
What a great first round of the HW Grand Prix !
Fedor Vladimirovich Emelianenko vs Antonio “Big Foot” Silva is gonna be a hell of a fight. I personally think Fedor will dodge most of Silva’s straights and low kicks, eat half a dozen of jabs until he lands one of his sambo casting overhead hooks. Because Silva is so strong and big he may well partially eat it on his way down, but that will be the end anyway. Chances: Fedor 70, Silva 30.
Overeem vs Fabricio “Vai Cavalho” Werdum will be a big test for both and we’ll get to see what style prevails on the night. In my opinion this is clear cut strategy wise. Alistair has to trade as much as he can on the stand-up until he rocks Werdum to the floor and finishes him there with a short-lived GnP. Whereas Werdum should trade kicks and punches as little as possible with the K-1 King and best striker on the world and take him to the ground as quickly as possible. On the floor, Fabricio, the multiple world BJJ champion and Black Belt 1st Dan Joint-Lock master, has a big chance to submit Alistair, regardless of Alistair’s strength. Chances: Alistair 50, Werdum 50.
Andrei Arlovski vs Sergei Valerievich Kharitonov is another big first-round fight on the other bracket. Here there are no contrast of styles. These two guys like to strike and trade in both long and close range. It will be a tricky fight for Kharitonov, since he has little or none experience in cage fighting, let alone knowing how to use the fence and the hard perimeter of the cage.
Arlovski has all of that and an arsenal of striking skills on top. However, the russian is way stronger than Arlovski and with Hyena-like stamina. Chances: Arlovski 40, Kharitonov 60.
Josh Barnett vs Brett Rogers is the remaining fight of the right hand bracket. Rogers is big, strong and probably more experienced and more cautious now. He’d have known what his weaknesses are and worked on them, so he’s still a force to be reckoned with. However, if Josh comes to the fight in the shape he used to be and “clean”, then to me this is a no-brainer; Barnett will have a far better chance of TKOing Rogers, simply because of his superior speed, strength and skills. Chances: Barnett 70, Rogers 30.
Hi, Brent. Why would I be offended for having seen Fedor’s last fight (which of course I did). Fedor over-reached and made a mistake on ground and pound. That has nothing to do with the fact that he’s an expert wrestler. One mistake does not undo his background.
@James
I agree 99% with what you say; Hell yes, If Fedor wins this tourney he’ll be remembered as the best athlete ever to put fighting gloves on, anywhere and through the times. To me, the russian is already an inmortal of the sport and like you it amazes me what he does to blokes way bigger than him. Just to single out one example of the past and with perhaps little relevance to the general topic, but I always remember the post-fight changing room interview of Hong Man Choi made by the Korean TV: “Che” Man still gasping for air said on Fedor, without hesitating: “….he was too strong……It felt like wrestling against a giant….”.
On the UFC boys: Even though UFC’s HW division is weaker compared to its other divisions, where it showcases some of the best in the world, I still think there are some termendous talent left in its HW division. I cannot go pass Cain Velasquez, whom I consider extremely talented and well rounded. This guy could give trouble to if not beat most of the Non-UFC HWs out there. Same thing goes for old good Frank Mir. Mir has a wide skill base that can match up against ay HW. Whether he wins or not outside the UFC is a different story but for sure he can give them a run for their money.
Junior Dos Santos or JDS; this guy is a world-class striker (and very heavy handed too) with a fast improving ground game, who could also match up well with the best Strikeforce’s HWs, and finally, Shane Carwin; even though is slower than let’s say Alistair or Fedor, he could still snatch a win on them on a given day purely based on his punching power and wrestling skills. I don’t think Carwin punches are stronger than Kharitonov’s though but that would be his perfect match-up. Man, that’d be a punch trading fest.
@Guillermo Lande, I tend to agree with the article writer, Oliver Saenz.
Fedor’s main skills are; 1. Stand-up: Striking at speed and very heavily. Also very good at dodging strikes and positioning himself. Nobody kicks Fedor in full (only slapping kicks), because he always grabs the kicking leg and trips the supporting one. 2. Wrestling: He uses his highly effective Judo black belt skills instead (he doesn’t have formal greco-roman or collegiate wrestling skills in his accumen) to drop any bloke to the mat, regardless of their strength, size or skills. 3. GnP: This is one of very effective sides of his wide Sambo skills. He can cause a lot of damage from the full or half guard. 4. Grappling: Again, he has no formal qualifications on BJJ but he uses another Sambo skill set called Sambo Grappling, which is very effective. We know this because he has beaten more guys by way of submission rather than way of knock-out.
All said, we have to give it to Fabricio Werdum when it comes to grappling. This is Werdum specialty and don’t forget that he is a multiple HW world champiuon in this discipline. To his peers in Brazil (the toughest and more competitive BJJ environment in the world) he is known as both “Power Horse” and “Joint-Lock” master.
Going to ther ground against Werdum, with Werdum at 100% is like trying to outstrike Alistair Overeem on the stand-up.
I think fedor should jump into werdum’s guard and defend it like he should have done last time. Make this guy think he’s still a brown belt. ball punch, kick to the head, headbutt all useful in guard.
That’s if he can get by silva first. Not gonna be a walk in the park.
@Guillermo Lande
While Fedor could presumably outsmart Werdum on the ground, I agree that Fedor SHOULD NOT do this for this tournament, not unless he’s absolutely sure of himself. Based on what I’ve seen, I think Fedor is overall better on the ground, but the whole point is for him to win, not to show off.
@Guillermo Lande
hey there. i meant “no offense” in relation to perhaps you weren’t aware of Fedor’s quick tap to Werdum, which you obviously are–i see your point. what i meant was, based on the result of the first fight i think Fedor should play it safe and stay on the feet.
i think Fedor’s judo is way ahead of Werdum’s. that is, in take downs and throws Fedor would put on a clinic with Werdum like he did to Nogueira two times (jiu jitsu guys, as sharp as they are on the ground, do not have the take down skills and defense that sambo experts possess). but i will cringe in pain if i see Fedor hanging out in Werdum’s guard again!
good to see people who love Fedor for who he is not only as an athlete, but as a classy human being. Fedor=the most classy fighter in MMA . . . GSP being comparable.
I must say it’s very cool to see so many points of view that disagree with me in such reasonable ways. On a side comment with regard to Werdum vs Fedor, the one reason I didn’t mind that Fedor lost to Werdum is that Werdum beat Fedor with skill.
I never cared whether Fedor was unbeaten or not, but I did care whether he had his first loss to a steroid monster tackler or to a skilled martial artist. Werdum won not only fairly but artfully. In their rematch I likewise won’t mind if Werdum wins again because Fedor would win or lose against someone who made it a life goal to be a skilled combatant and not just an any-means winner.
Werdum got soooo lucky in the fight with Fedor!! Dude, Fedor rocked him and tried to finish him early and wasnt even sweating yet.. If Fedor was sweaty that fight would have been his.
@Guillermo Lande
Ok, the reason is because Fedor has already tried that and got caught. It’s not that he CAN’T do it. The smarter tactic however, would be to go where Werdum is the weakest…..STANDUP!
Lesar is like a great big beautiful car, that has no motor…..give me a tough, old tank, that can run through a wall, anyday…hence, the great Emelianenko.
I would still give Fedor odds on favorite to win this Strike Force event. One of his biggest strengths is game planning and picking apart his opponents weaknesses. Part of the reason he is so good at this is that he is so well rounded in all areas and can take the fight anywhere he wants. Now that he has suffered his first lost to Werdum, I think that this is going to make him all the more dangerous. I fully expect that he is going to go though Big Foot Sylvia pretty quickly and I think he will finish it in the first round by submission or TKO. Personally I think that way too much as been made out of his loss to Werdum. If you look at when they went to the ground, Fedor escaped a submission attempt twice however he jumped back in too quickly in the effort to finish the fight quickly and got caught. Fedor even made a comment afterwards that he believed that he could escape any submission attempt. While he is very humble man and well spoken, I think that even he realizes that such a belief was a huge mistake and you better believe that he has learned from it. I have always felt that he beat himself more than anything else. I don’t see Barnett, Rogers or Sergi being much of a problem for Fedor. Overeem will pose the biggest challenge with his combination of size, submission skills and K1 level striking. Fedor’s striking is wider and much more of a brawling style compared to Overeem’s but Fedor’s hand speed and sense of timing could be the difference. Don’t be surprised if Fedor KO’s Overeem or cracks him so hard that he will take him out of his game for the rest of the fight.