UFC Fight Night 20 Preview: Gray Maynard is a Stronger Fighter than Nate Diaz

The main event of UFC Fight Night 20 on January 11 is Fighters.com fifth-ranked lightweight “Bully” Gray Maynard (8-0) versus Nate Diaz (10-5) in a battle for title contention. Many questions will be answered in this fight about these two fighters who are both searching for that title shot against Fighters.com and UFC Lightweight Champion ”Prodigy” B.J. Penn (15-5-1).

After winning The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 5, Nate ripped off four straight wins inside the Octagon until being matched up against “The Carpenter” Clay Guida (25-11) at UFC 94 where he lost a split decision. Then he faced “Daddy”Joe Stevenson (31-9) at TUF 9 finale, losing by way of unanimous decision. He got back to his winning ways at Fight Night 19 submitting “The Young Assassin” Melvin Guillard (22-8-2).

 He now faces Maynard for the second time. They faced off on TUF 5 in the semi-finals when Diaz beat Gray with a guillotine choke and sent him packing while he moved on and took the title as The Next Ultimate Fighter as well as a six figure contract.

Gray has done nothing since that loss but string together win after win after win. He has six straight wins inside the Octagon including tough victories against Jim Miller (16-2), “El Matador” Roger Huerta (20-3-1) and fourth-ranked ”The Answer” Frank Edgar (11-1). He is the only one to have beaten the very tough Edgar in the UFC’s lightweight division thus far. We have seen much improved striking from Gray since his stint on TUF where he was more of a lay and pray wrestler. Granted all but one of his wins inside the Octagon have been via decision but you can’t argue with the progress he has made.

After leaving the TUF house Gray went to Xtreme Couture to train with some of the best in the fight business. Since then we have seen him use head movement in the striking game as well as decent footwork. This may not seem like a big deal but for a guy who could not do much but take you down and hold you there on The Ultimate Fighter, this is a huge step in becoming a top contender.

The fight against Diaz will prove to be a very tough test for Gray. Both Diaz brothers have a very odd striking style that consists of throwing “punches in bunches”. Many of these strikes are not the type that will knock out an opponent but they seem to throw off the rhythm of even the best striker. This is where his footwork, head movement and new found counter strikes will come into play. He may be able to push use those to rock Diaz. My money would be on Gray trying to get in and out of exchanges landing the harder blows and working his way to a decision victory, however he did get submitted the last time they fought.

Nate is a very legitimate black belt training under Cesar Gracie. He uses his jiu jitsu very well in the cage and has frustrated many wrestlers by throwing up submission attempt after submission attempt. Gray may want to keep this fight standing in order to stay clear of those submissions. If he doesn’t then we will find out just how far along he has come with his submission defense.

Nate trains with another great wrestler in Fighters.com second- ranked welterweight and Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields (24-4-1). I am sure Nate is working hard with Jake, one of the classiest guys in the sport, on his take downs and take down defense.

Gray is a stronger fighter than Nate and I see it being next to impossible for Nate to take Gray down unless he decides to pull guard and drag him down into the depths that is Gracie jiu jitsu.

Will we see the wrestler out strike the submission expert? Maybe we will see them stand and trade for the entire 15 minutes since they both have dangerous ground games, albeit worlds apart. No matter how the fight ends we will get answers to the questions about both of these fighters and one just might be working his way towards a title shot or a showdown with newly acquired fighter “Fireball Kid” Takanori Gomi (28-6).

This a fight that could very well showcase each discipline a true mixed martial artist studies each and every day. I know I will be watching with anticipation, will you?